The fall of Putin and Moscow
If we are to believe the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgueni Prigogine, the incursion of Russian anti-Putin fighters into Russian territory could herald the fall of the regime.
Prigogine is a terrible yo-yo. An ex-convict, without faith or law, he leads an army of mercenaries who risk being tried for war crimes.
But Prigogine has some qualities. One of them is to say what he means, without filters or jargon. So far the information from him is reliable.
Of the 50,000 mercenaries that made up his army, he explained that only 30,000 would remain. He condemned the retreat of the Russian army in Bakhmout. He criticized the lack of weapons his troops suffered from. He correctly predicted the fall of Bakhmout’s center.
For months, Prigogine has spoken out against the incompetence of the Russian army and the Russian leadership.
In recent days, he had the courage to admit that the Ukrainian army was one of the best in the world.
Revolution in the making
Prigogine’s new predictions are enough to scare Russian leaders.
According to him, if the war continues as it started, there will be a revolution in Russia on the scale of the one of 1917. This is because, to use his words, the children of poor families return in coffins, while the children of the elite return in coffins . bask in the sun. That would be enough for the next Ukrainian counter-offensive to be successful if the Putin regime fell.
To avoid this fall, Prigogine wants Putin to decree a general mobilization.
Putin on borrowed time
Prigogine favors the exalted analysis of ultranationalist Russians. His words are probably exaggerated. But they have so far shown some sharpness.
They confirm the growing instability of Putin’s government. This same instability that prompts Putin to avoid a general mobilization for fear that the population will fail him.
For Putin, his time in power seems limited.